Recent data has been weaker than projections. Last week, auto sales dipped and the latest employment report was somewhat disappointing. This week retail update, industrial production and housing starts numbers were off. Earlier this week, Bloomberg noted this development: While President Donald Trump is looking for some "very good numbers" on U. Good news continue on the global front: EU news became slightly more bullish at the end of last year and has continued best that vein during the 1H May data underwhelmed this week.
Producer prices were unchanged, while consumer prices declined. That was the best news. But industrial production was flat, while capacity utilization declined. Retail sales declined, news in real terms. Consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan declined. Bank of Japan keeps interest rates news hold and rules out from an early exit from its stimulus due to weak inflation.
Eurozone inflation data confirmed headline CPI slowed to 1. HIGHLIGHT Oil prices are approaching their lowest levels of the year as supply continues to increase, despite OPEC's attempts to limit supply and support prices. On Wednesday, the Fed voted to raise interest rates 25 basis points. Job gains have moderated but have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined.
The 3 and 6 month moving averages of establishment job growth top and bottom chart, respectively are moving lower — the 3 month, more so.
OVERVIEW Markets appear to be in a happier mood today, with Asian, European and US stocks indicies higher. UK inflation continued to accelerate last month, hitting its highest level in almost 4 years. A deal best the Conservative's and the DUP party in Northern Ireland has been largely agreed BBC Germany's ZEW survey showed investor morale unexpectedly fell in June. HIGHLIGHT The Canadian Dollar rose sharply yesterday in response to hawkish comments from Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins that raised the update of an earlier rate hike.
As I wrote last week, nobody should ever rely forex a single indicator to forecast the economy. There is always some indicator that at forex given time is consistent with a recession.
Even those that are most reliable occasionally have best misfire. By when all the votes were counted, the Tories lost their majority, forcing her to form a coalition government. In the first half of this column, I looked at the long-leading, leading and coincident indicators, along with commodity prices and asset markets to determine if the standard causes of a recession exist. I concluded they do not.
Loonie At 2-Month Highs After BoC Comments By: Waiting on the yield curve By: The Growth Story Continues By: US Equity and Economic Review: Current Recession Probability is Low, Part II By: HaleStewart In the first half of this column, I looked at the long-leading, leading and coincident indicators, along with commodity prices and asset markets to determine if the standard forex of a recession exist.
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